ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. — Three weeks ago, the Buffalo Bills overtook the NFL as betting favorites to win the Super Bowl.
Today, they no longer lead the AFC East. They cling to the final playoff spot, have a few teams stalking from behind and face a formidable upcoming schedule.
The Kansas City Chiefs won Sunday. So did the Baltimore Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals. The Los Angeles Chargers did, too. The New England Patriots, winners on Thursday, rested up.
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The Bills, meanwhile, got their spleens ripped out by the Indianapolis Colts, dome dwellers who looked rather comfortable eviscerating the Bills 41-15 in the frigid rain.
The Colts feature an elite rushing attack. The Bills knew they needed to win a smash-mouth matchup and showed up Sunday with cold sores.
“No one wants to go through what we just went through,” Bills coach Sean McDermott said. “Give the Colts some credit. But I believe we’re a better football team, but we’ve got to play a better complete game than what we just did in all three phases.”
Buffalo’s offense was flimsy. Buffalo’s defense was overpowered. Buffalo’s special teams were hapless.
Indianapolis did whatever it damn well pleased. Most of the eight Colts who spoke at their postgame news conference called Sunday’s victory “emotional,” peeking above .500 for the first time after starting the season 1-4. They also won for the first time versus a 2020 playoff team in nine tries.
Frank Reich’s lower lip trembled as the Colts coach and former Bills quarterback recited lyrics to a gospel song that has kept him centered through the decades.
“This was definitely a playoff atmosphere,” Indy tailback Jonathan Taylor said after becoming the first player to score five touchdowns against Buffalo. “You love playing in those kinds of environments.
“You come out, you’re getting booed, and you just feel it. The only thing you think about is, ‘It’s just us 11 together on this field, and that’s all we got.’ And you have a bunch of hostile people around you. And then, as the game goes on and people start leaving, you just feel a tighter bond between those 11 on the field, knowing that you guys came in and held strong together.”
Indianapolis was eliminated from the 2020 postseason — and Philip Rivers’ career ended — by three points in Orchard Park.
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“It’s a respect thing,” Colts running back Nyheim Hines said. “We’ve had the underdog mentality since Frank has been here. Being in the same (Highmark Stadium visitors) locker room, watching one of my favorites, Philip Rivers, retire. It was personal today.
“We had a lot of things riding on this game.”
The Bills sure didn’t match their guests’ urgency.
On Sunday, two weeks after Jacksonville Jaguars cornerback Shaquill Griffin remarked the Bills were “walking around … like they don’t care” and deserved to lose, the Bills trudged up the Highmark Stadium tunnel with vacant stares.
Franchise quarterback Josh Allen was asked how he would respond to critics who think the Bills are showing themselves to be frauds.
“We know who we are,” Allen said. “What we put out there on the field today, that’s not who we are.”
You are what your record says you are, Hall of Fame coach Bill Parcells once said. The Bills are a disconcerting 6-4, have lost three of their past five games and will play again in just four days. Thanksgiving night, they will meet the New Orleans Saints in the Superdome.
Buffalo has fallen out of first place and is on the verge of disappearing from the projected playoff bracket and into the dreaded “in the hunt” category.
Taylor became the 17th player — the first Colt and the first Bills opponent — to score five touchdowns in a game. He gained 185 of the Colts’ 264 rushing yards, the most against the Bills in three years. The Bills defense committed three 15-yard penalties. Carson Wentz needed to complete 11 whole passes for 106 yards to win.
The Colts made it a long afternoon for Josh Allen. (Jeffrey T. Barnes / Associated Press)
Allen threw two interceptions and fumbled behind another rearranged and exploited Bills offensive line. Isaiah McKenzie slipped on the wet turf and, untouched, fumbled a kickoff return that gave Taylor a 2-yard TD run on the very next snap. Tyler Bass missed two field goal attempts for the first time in 10 months.
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Buffalo’s penchant for tempting COVID-19’s fate played a part on both sides of scrimmage. Right tackle Spencer Brown and run-stuffing defensive tackle Star Lotulelei couldn’t play.
McDermott refused to talk about Brown or Lotulelei afterward.
Sunday was the first time a Bills defense surrendered at least 40 points and 360 yards since a 47-3 loss to the Ravens in the 2018 opener. The starting QB matchup was Nathan Peterman versus Joe Flacco.
Indy kept the ball for nearly 39 minutes. Buffalo has lost 37 in a row when its possession time is under 23 minutes, dating to 1992.
“We can’t go out like that,” Bills safety Micah Hyde said. “Everything starts with stopping the run, affecting their quarterback and taking the ball away.
“We didn’t do nothing today, not one thing. We didn’t do well on third down, didn’t do well in the red zone, didn’t take the ball away, didn’t put Wentz in tough situations.”
McDermott acknowledged he’s concerned about his run defense, previously trampled by Tennessee Titans rhino Derrick Henry in a tight loss. McDermott said the solution “starts with a mentality and attitude.”
That’s not something fans want to hear in Week 11.
The surging Patriots now lead the AFC East by a half-game, and the Bills still have to play them twice. The Patriots have won five straight games and six of their past seven, the lone loss coming in overtime to the NFC East-leading Dallas Cowboys.
Further problematic for the Bills: All four of their defeats are in the AFC, the most conference losses for any team in first or second place in its division. The Cleveland Browns are the only other NFL team with a winning record and at least four conference losses.
In wild-card tiebreakers with division opponents, conference record is the fourth consideration after head-to-head results, best winning percentage in the division and best winning percentage against common opponents. In wild-card tiebreakers with teams outside the division, conference record is second behind head-to-head result (if applicable).
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The Bills will lose any head-to-head tiebreaker with the Pittsburgh Steelers, Tennessee Titans and now the Colts, who are only a half-game behind. So are the Browns.
The Las Vegas Raiders and Denver Broncos are just one game behind the Bills.
The Bills haven’t won consecutive games or defeated a team with a winning current record for a month and a half. The last time they beat anybody with a winning record on that date was Week 2 versus the 1-0 Miami Dolphins. The combined records of the Bills’ six losing opponents is 23-40.
Once oddsmakers anointed Buffalo the team to beat, it scored six points on Jacksonville, yet in allowing only three field goals, a championship path could be rationalized; defense wins championships and all that. Then Buffalo responded last Sunday with a comprehensive performance against another donkey opponent, and all felt right again.
Allen said after trouncing the slovenly New York Jets: “One thing we’re not going to do as a team is ride this roller coaster of ‘We were the worst team to ever play, and now we’re the best team to ever play.’ We’re going to stay consistent and steady and come into work each and every day and try to put our best foot forward every Sunday, Monday or Thursday.”
The Bills have 3 1/2 days to find some answers, and this could be their easiest opponent over the next month. In a 40-29 loss at the Philadelphia Eagles, the Saints scored 22 points against a passive, fourth-quarter defense.
Then it’s the Patriots at home on Monday night, at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, at home against the Carolina Panthers and at the Patriots the day after Christmas.
“We’re a really good football team,” Allen said, “when we don’t bite ourselves in the butt.
“I got a lot of trust and a lot of faith in our team. There’s no secret that we have to do a better job on all fronts. There’s no way around it. At the same time, it’s not panic mode.”
Based on what we’ve seen two of the past three weeks, Bills fans better hope their team at least views this as crisis mode.
(Top photo of Jonathan Taylor: Kevin Hoffman / Getty Images)
Tim Graham is a senior writer for The Athletic, covering Buffalo sports. He had been the Buffalo News' enterprise reporter and previously covered the AFC East at ESPN and the Miami Dolphins at the Palm Beach Post. Follow Tim on Twitter @ByTimGraham
