Portland Real Estate Market Conditions May 2010

The latest statistics from Portland’s MLS are out. The market looks better. But part of the reason is the effect of the first time home buyer tax credit.

If you remember, buyers needed to have their first home under contract by April 30, 2010. That’s a Pending Sale. The transaction needs to close by June 30, 2010. That’s a Sold statistic.

As expected, April saw a surge in pending sales and May has an increase in homes sold (43% more sold homes than May 2009). Look for June 2010 sold statistics to be higher also. But the market seems to not be sustaining this growth. Pending sales for May 2010 are down 24% compared with May 2009. And they’re down 50% from April 2010. People who would have bought in May had their offers accepted in April to qualify for the tax credit.

For May 2010 we have a seven month supply of homes for sale. (See the chart below.) That’s the lowest it’s been since October 2009. That is a good sign and brings us more in line with a neutral market–neither Buyer’s Market nor Seller’s Market.

The most optimistic news I pull out of the May 2010 numbers is that month to month price declines are slowing. If this continues, the housing market price tumble may be bottoming out.

May 2010 average sold price is down 5.5% from May 2009 but only down 2.3% from April 2010 average sold price. And the median sales price for May 2010 is down 4.4% from May 2009 but only down 0.4% from April 2010′s median sold price.

The next few months will help us see if the real estate prices are bottoming out.

Is it a buyers market or a seller’s market? See the chart below.

It’s all based on the number of months of inventory. How many months would it take to sell all the homes currently on the market if no new property came up for sale? Less than 4 months inventory is a sellers market;  4-6 months is a neutral market; and more than 6 months inventory is a buyers market. All information is courtesy of RMLS.